Upgrading leadership's crystal ball : five reasons why forecasting must replace predicting and how to make the strategic change in business and public policy / Jeffrey C. Bauer, Phd ; foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz.
Introduction -- The foundations of predicting -- Five fatal flaws of predicting -- The art of forecasting -- How to forecast in dynamic systems -- From forecasts to strategies.
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Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process,