Scenario analysis -- Ukraine : a constant boil -- Nagorno-Karabakh : overreach and miscalculation -- Kazakhstan : cascading instability -- Conclusions and recommendations.
Summary
"Russia's annexation of Crimea and its military operations in Eastern Ukraine have overturned the post-Cold War norms that had provided stability and development for the former Soviet countries bordering Russia. As neighboring countries assess their own security situation based on Russia's aggressive practices in Ukraine and the West's response, they are actively testing the new contours of Russian and Western engagement, regional alliances and relationships, and regional conflict dynamics. These stress tests are risky and could ignite further violence. To understand these newly emerging dynamics, the U.S. Institute of Peace led a scenario analysis, taking a medium-term, regional outlook to identify the forces and factors propelling the potential for further conflict. This analysis yielded a set of compelling narratives that provide a structure for understanding conflict dynamics in the broader region"--Publisher's web site.
Note
United States Institute of Peace Copyright 2015 2015
Online resource; title from PDF caption (USIP, viewed March 24, 2015).
