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Author Goodwin, Paul, author.

Title Profit from your forecasting software : a best practice guide for sales forecasters / Paul Goodwin.

Publication Info. Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2018]


Location Call No. OPAC Message Status
 Axe Books 24x7 Business E-Book  Electronic Book    ---  Available
Description 1 online resource.
text txt rdacontent
computer c rdamedia
online resource cr rdacarrier
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contents Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Prologue; Chapter 1: Profit from Accurate Forecasting; 1.1 The Importance of Demand Forecasting; 1.2 When Is a Forecast Not a Forecast?; 1.3 Ways of Presenting Forecasts; 1.3.1 Forecasts as Probability Distributions; 1.3.2 Point Forecasts; 1.3.3 Prediction Intervals; 1.4 The Advantages of Using Dedicated Demand Forecasting Software; 1.5 Getting Your Data Ready for Forecasting; 1.6 Trading-Day Adjustments; 1.7 Overview of the Rest of the Book; 1.8 Summary of Key Terms; 1.9 References.
Chapter 2: How Your Software Finds Patterns in Past Demand Data2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Key Features of Sales Histories; 2.2.1 An Underlying Trend; 2.2.2 A Seasonal Pattern; 2.2.3 Noise; 2.3 Autocorrelation; 2.4 Intermittent Demand; 2.5 Outliers and Special Events; 2.6 Correlation; 2.7 Missing Values; 2.8 Wrap-Up; 2.9 Summary of Key Terms; Chapter 3: Understanding Your Software's Bias and Accuracy Measures; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Fitting and Forecasting; 3.2.1 Fixed-Origin Evaluations; 3.2.2 Rolling-Origin Evaluations; 3.3 Forecast Errors and Bias Measures; 3.3.1 The Mean Error (ME).
3.3.2 The Mean Percentage Error (MPE)3.4 Direct Accuracy Measures; 3.4.1 The Mean Absolute Error (MAE); 3.4.2 The Mean Squared Error (MSE); 3.5 Percentage Accuracy Measures; 3.5.1 The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE); 3.5.2 The Median Absolute Percentage Error (MDAPE); 3.5.3 The Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE); 3.5.4 The MAD/MEAN Ratio; 3.5.5 Percentage Error Measures When There Is a Trend or Seasonal Pattern; 3.6 Relative Accuracy Measures; 3.6.1 Geometric Mean Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE); 3.6.2 The Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE).
3.6.3 Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)3.7 Comparing the Different Accuracy Measures; 3.8 Exception Reporting; 3.9 Forecast Value-Added Analysis (FVA); 3.10 Wrap-Up; 3.11 Summary of Key Terms; 3.12 References; Chapter 4: Curve Fitting and Exponential Smoothing; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Curve Fitting; 4.2.1 Common Types of Curve; 4.2.2 Assessing How Well the Curve Fits the Sales History; 4.2.3 Strengths and Limitations of Forecasts Based on Curve Fitting; 4.3 Exponential Smoothing Methods; 4.3.1 Simple (or Single) Exponential Smoothing.
4.3.2 Exponential Smoothing When There Is a Trend: Holt's Method4.3.3 The Damped Holt's Method; 4.3.4 Holt's Method with an Exponential Trend; 4.3.5 Exponential Smoothing Where There Is a Trend and Seasonal Pattern: The Holt-Winters Method; 4.3.6 Overview of Exponential Smoothing Methods; 4.4 Forecasting Intermittent Demand; 4.5 Wrap-Up; 4.6 Summary of Key Terms; Chapter 5: Box-Jenkins ARIMA Models; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Stationarity; 5.3 Models of Stationary Time Series: Autoregressive Models; 5.4 Models of Stationary Time Series: Moving Average Models.
Note Online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on May 31, 2018).
Summary With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this practical book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills of forecasting that lead to better accuracy. -- Edited summary from book.
Subject Sales forecasting.
Sales management -- Data processing.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Industrial Management.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Management Science.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Organizational Behavior.
Sales forecasting. (OCoLC)fst01103827
Sales management -- Data processing. (OCoLC)fst01103836
Genre/Form Electronic books.
Other Form: Print version: Goodwin, Paul. Profit from your forecasting software. Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2018] 9781119414575 (DLC) 2017059951
ISBN 9781119415985 (electronic book)
1119415985 (electronic book)
9781119415992 (electronic book)
1119415993 (electronic book)
9781119416005 (electronic book)
1119416000 (electronic book)
9781119414575 (hardcover)
Standard No. CHNEW 001003187
CHVBK 516428861
GBVCP 1027307434

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