| Description |
vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm. |
| Note |
"An American Interest Book." |
| Summary |
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-182) and index. |
| Contents |
Challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- Once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft, Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz, Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra versus Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios : a discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henry Levy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama. |
| Subject |
Emergency management -- United States.
|
|
International relations.
|
| Added Author |
Fukuyama, Francis.
|
| ISBN |
0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper) |
|
9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper) |
| Standard No. |
NLGGC 304250791 |
|
AU@ 000041943613 |
|
