| Edition |
1st ed. |
| Description |
xi, 252 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| Contents |
Peering through the eyepiece of randomness: the hidden role of chance . . . when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- The laws of truths and half-truths: the basic principles of probability and how they are abused . . . why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Finding your way through a space of possibilities: a framework for thinking about random situations . . . from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- Tracking the pathways to success: how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters . . . the mathematical meaning of expectation -- The dueling laws of large and small numbers: the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe . . . Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- False positives and positive fallacies: how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge . . . mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- Measurement and the law of errors: the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements . . . the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- The order in chaos: how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness . . . or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion: why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events . . . can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- The drunkard's walk: why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality . . . Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life. |
| Summary |
An irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize. |
| Subject |
Random variables.
|
|
Probabilities.
|
|
Chance.
|
| ISBN |
0375424040 |
|
9780375424045 |
| Standard No. |
NZ1 12068092 |
|
