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Author Ecola, Liisa, author.

Title The future of driving in developing countries / Liisa Ecola, Charlene Rohr, Johanna Zmud, Tobias Kuhnimhof, Peter Phleps.

Publication Info. Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2014]


Location Call No. OPAC Message Status
 Axe JSTOR Open Ebooks  Electronic Book    ---  Available
Description 1 online resource (xiv, 115 pages) : color illustrations, color charts.
text txt rdacontent
computer c rdamedia
online resource cr rdacarrier
text file PDF rda
Series Technical report ; RR-636-ifmo
Technical report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-636-ifmo.
Note Title from PDF title page (viewed on August 13, 2014).
Funding Performed by RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology Program for Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo).
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 108-113).
Note Print version record.
Contents Introduction -- Evolutionary paths of mobility -- Study methodology -- Historical mobility development in four OECD countries -- Comparison of factors among the four OECD countries -- Future mobility paths of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: Data sources -- Appendix B: Country travel demand experts -- Appendix C: Factor fact sheets and flag-game results -- Appendix D: Estimating the parameters for a Gompertz model of vehicle-kilometers traveled per capita.
Summary The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest.
Subject Automobile driving -- Developing countries -- Forecasting.
COMPUTERS -- Data Modeling & Design.
Automobile driving -- Forecasting. (OCoLC)fst00822911
Developing countries. (OCoLC)fst01242969
Business & Economics.
Transportation Economics.
Genre/Form Electronic books.
Electronic books.
Added Author Rohr, Charlene, 1964- author.
Zmud, Johanna, author.
Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 1973- author.
Phleps, Peter, author.
Rand Corporation, issuing body.
Rand Transportation, Space, and Technology (Program)
Institut für Mobilitätsforschung.
Other Form: Print version: Ecola, Liisa. Future of driving in developing countries. Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [2014] 9780833086044 (OCoLC)884480836
ISBN 9780833089816 (electronic bk.)
0833089811 (electronic bk.)

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