Edition |
First edition. |
Description |
1 online resource (158 pages) |
|
text rdacontent |
|
computer rdamedia |
|
online resource rdacarrier |
Series |
Supply and operations management collection, 2156-8200 |
|
Supply and operations management collection. 2156-8200
|
Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 147-153) and index. |
Contents |
Part 1. Introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Choice under uncertainty -- 3. A simple example -- Part 2. Forecasting basics -- 4. Know your time series -- 5. Time series decomposition -- Part 3. Forecasting models -- 6. Exponential smoothing -- 7. ARIMA models -- 8. Causal models and leading indicators -- 9. Count data and intermittent demands -- 10. Human judgment -- Part 4. Forecasting quality -- 11. Forecast quality measures -- 12. Forecasting competitions -- Part 5. Forecasting organization -- 13. Sales and operations planning -- 14. Forecasting hierarchies -- References -- Index. |
Access |
Access restricted to authorized users and institutions. |
Summary |
Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that is why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. We therefore start out from the very basics and provide a nontechnical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. We also discuss how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the nonexpert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. |
Note |
Title from PDF title page (viewed on August 29, 2016). |
Subject |
Business forecasting.
|
Indexed Term |
forecasting |
|
sales and operations planning |
|
decision making |
|
service levels |
|
statistics thinking |
|
choice under uncertainty |
|
forecast accuracy |
|
intermittent demand |
|
forecasting competition |
|
judgmental forecasting |
Genre/Form |
Electronic books.
|
Added Author |
Siemsen, Enno., author.
|
Other Form: |
Print version: 9781606495025 |
ISBN |
9781606495025 paperback |
|
9781606495032 (electronic bk.) |
|