| Description |
1 online resource ([ii], 79 pages.) : color illustrations. |
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text rdacontent |
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computer rdamedia |
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online resource rdacarrier |
| Series |
General technical report ; NRS-P-107 |
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General technical report NRS-P ; 107.
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| Summary |
These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the future of complex social-ecological systems cannot be predicted, these papers show how futures research can offer perspectives and methods that help researchers, decisionmakers, and other stakeholders explore alternative futures and gain environmental foresight--insight that can inform decisionmaking on environmental challenges. One author points out that the study of the future can be thought of as the study of change. He discusses three types of futures: the expected future, a range of plausible alternatives, and the preferred future, which decisionmakers can shape depending on their choice of action. An example of the methodology of futures research is provided in another chapter, which illustrates the use of scenario development. Another chapter identifies global trends that could dramatically change social-ecological systems. The second half of the collection applies the methods and approaches of futures research to natural resource management. A global and a regional scenario illustrate scenario planning, a methodology that produces sets of plausible futures that could develop from current conditions depending on alternative human choices and drivers of change. Another example demonstrates how analysts can incorporate global scenarios and modeling, and scoping of trends and issues, into forest inventory data to gain insight into the regional forests of tomorrow. A chapter on linking global scenarios with assessments of U.S. natural resources as required under the Resources Planning Act considers both opportunities and challenges. Lessons learned from an analysis of futures research conducted since the 1970s at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are also offered. These papers suggest that the perspectives and methods of futures research hold great potential for developing the foresight needed to meet environmental challenges of the 21st century. |
| Note |
Title from title screen (viewed on Mar. 27, 2013). |
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"November 2012."--P. [ii]. |
| Contents |
Futures research: a neglected dimension in environmental policy and planning / David N. Bengston -- An approach to the future / Peter C. Bishop -- A framework for developing foresight in natural resource management / Kay E. Strong -- Global mega forces: implications for the future of natural resources / George H. Kubik -- Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems / Stephen R. Carpenter and Adena R. Rissman -- The Northern Forest Futures Project: a forward look at forest conditions in the northern United States / W. Keith Moser and Stephen R. Shifley -- Linking global scenarios to national assessments: experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessment / Linda L. Langner and Peter J. Ince -- Environmental futures research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency / Robert L. Olson. |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references. |
| Subject |
Environmental policy -- Planning.
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Natural resources -- Management -- Planning.
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Sustainability -- Planning.
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Forest management -- Planning.
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Ecosystem health -- Forecasting.
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Forests and forestry -- Forecasting.
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Decision making.
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Forecasting -- Study and teaching.
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| Added Author |
Bengston, David N., editor.
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United States. Forest Service. Northern Research Station, issuing body.
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International Symposium on Society and Resource Management.
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| Other Form: |
Print version: Environmental futures research (OCoLC)870445535 |
| Gpo Item No. |
0083-B-06 (online) |
| Sudoc No. |
A 13.88:NRS-P-107 |
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