Front Cover; Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy; Copyright Page; Contents; Biographical Information; 1 How They Play the Game; Bibliography; 2 Regression Models; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Mathematical Models; 2.3 Linear Regression; Estimating Parameters; Estimated Parameters; Se(bk): Standard Error of the Parameter; Regression Error; R-Square (R2); t-Stat; F-Value; Regression Model Requirements; 2.4 Regression Metrics; Regression Analysis Statistics; t-Test; R2 Goodness of Fit; F-Test; Probability Home Team Wins; Matrix Algebra Techniques; Estimate Parameters.
Standard Normal DistributionStudent's t-Distribution; Log-Normal Distribution; Uniform Distribution; Exponential Distribution; Chi-Square Distribution; Logistic Distribution; Triangular Distribution; Discrete Distributions; Binomial Distribution; Poisson Distribution; 4.3 Sampling Techniques; 4.4 Random Sampling; 4.5 Sampling With Replacement; 4.6 Sampling Without Replacement; 4.7 Bootstrapping Techniques; 4.8 Jackknife Sampling Techniques; 4.9 Monte Carlo Simulation; 4.10 Conclusion; Endnote; References; 5 Sports Prediction Models; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Game Scores Model; Description.
Model FormSolving the Model; Estimating Home Team Winning Spread; Estimating Probability; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins by a Specified Score; 5.3 Team Statistics Model; Description; Model Form; Solving the Model; Estimating Home Team Winning Spread; Estimating Probability; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins by a Specified Score; 5.4 Logistic Probability Model; Description; Model Form; Solving the Model; Estimating Home Team Winning Probability.
Estimating Home Team Winning Spread5.5 Team Ratings Model; Description; Model Form; Estimating Home Team Winning Spread; Estimating Probability; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins; Calculating Probability That the Home Team Wins by a Specified Score; 5.6 Logit Spread Model; Description; Model Form; Solving the Model; Estimating Home Team Winning Spread; Estimating Probability; 5.7 Logit Points Model; Description; Model Form; 5.8 Estimating Parameters; Estimating Home Team Points; Estimating Away Team Points; Estimating Home Team Winning Spread.
