Part I. The facts of business cycles -- one. Why study business cycles? -- two. Describing business cycles part II. Macroeconomic theories of business cycles -- three. Early business cycle theories -- four. Keynes's and Keynesian theory -- five. Austrian economics -- six. The monetarist model -- seven. The rational expectations model -- eight. Real business cycle models -- nine. New Keynesian models -- part III. Financial instability and forecasting -- ten. Models of credit and financial instability -- eleven. Beliefs, behavior, bubbles, and banking crises -- twelve. Macroeconomic forecasting -- part IV. Business cycles in the United States -- thirteen. The Great Depression -- fourteen. Postwar business cycles -- part V. Modern international recessions and depressions -- fifteen. The East Asian crisis and the IMF -- sixteen. The Great Recession in Japan -- seventeen. Soverign debt crises and euro-zone -- eighteen. The global financial crisis of 2008 -- nineteen. Conclusions -- what we know and do not know about business cycles.
This analysis presents a comprehensive overview of global economics, assessing older theories alongside of new ways of thinking to reveal the empirical methods needed to evaluate, forecast, and prevent future crises.